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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 54

Cleveland Browns 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(14:01) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 46 yards to CAR 8, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 18-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -1.14 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.49 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 54, worth -3.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 16, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model