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MIA Away

Miami Dolphins

HC Brian Flores
@
TEN Home

Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Vrabel
Sunday 2022-01-02 · 13:00 Nissan Stadium, Nashville US 🌨 Snow Spread 3.0 O/U 41.0

Win Probability

MIA
44.1%
TEN
55.9%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIA defense: -0.224 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • MIA offense: -0.053 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • TEN defense: -0.068 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • TEN on 4 more days rest than MIA
  • Tua Tagovailoa (MIA): +0.138 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • TEN offense: -0.035 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)

Predicted Final Score

MIA 19
–
TEN 21
Projected margin: TEN by 2 Projected total: 40

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

MIA

Adam Butler DE Questionable Illness
Brandon Jones S Questionable Illness

TEN

Larrell Murchison DT Questionable Knee
Derick Roberson LB Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 3
–
TEN 34

Prediction missed by 29 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 01:27 TD TEN (1:27) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 87-G.Swaim for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 0 – TEN 6
  • Q2 14:18 FG TEN (14:18) 14-R.Bullock 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern. MIA 0 – TEN 10
  • Q2 09:47 FG MIA (9:47) 7-J.Sanders 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy. MIA 3 – TEN 10
  • Q2 03:25 TD TEN (3:25) 7-D.Foreman right tackle for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 3 – TEN 16
  • Q4 07:46 TD TEN (7:46) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 86-A.Firkser for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 3 – TEN 23
  • Q4 03:03 FG TEN (3:03) 14-R.Bullock 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern. MIA 3 – TEN 27
  • Q4 02:00 TD TEN (2:00) 40-D.Hilliard right guard for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 3 – TEN 33

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 16 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (11:07) 5-M.Palardy punts 37 yards to TEN 21, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 80-C.Rogers to TEN 30 for 9 yards (45-D.Riley).

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 10 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (10:07) 6-B.Kern punts 52 yards to MIA 18, Center-46-M.Cox. 17-J.Waddle to MIA 33 for 15 yards (29-D.Cruikshank).

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 9 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (9:01) 5-M.Palardy punts 36 yards to TEN 30, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 80-C.Rogers to TEN 38 for 8 yards (42-C.Fejedelem).

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 4 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (6:46) 6-B.Kern punts 38 yards to MIA 18, Center-46-M.Cox. 35-C.Milton MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at MIA 14.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 9 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (5:44) 5-M.Palardy punts 42 yards to TEN 43, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 80-C.Rogers to MIA 46 for 11 yards (43-A.Van Ginkel).

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 1 at the 17
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 93%

    (2:52) 17-R.Tannehill up the middle to MIA 15 for 2 yards (94-C.Wilkins).

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 1 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.34 EP
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 98%

    (14:18) 14-R.Bullock 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 2 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 43%

    (11:11) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 81-D.Smythe pushed ob at TEN 27 for 15 yards (41-Z.Cunningham).

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 4 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 89%

    (9:47) 7-J.Sanders 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 10 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 33%

    (1:11) 5-M.Palardy punts 32 yards to TEN 14, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 16 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 28%

    (9:40) 6-B.Kern punts 46 yards to MIA 2, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 18 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 62%

    (4:37) 7-J.Sanders 53 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-D.Autry), Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 9 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 38%

    (15:00) 6-B.Kern punts 37 yards to MIA 7, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-21-M.Farley.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 11 at the 27
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.65 EP
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 80%

    (10:25) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete deep middle to 11-D.Parker (20-J.Jenkins). PENALTY on MIA-11-D.Parker, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at TEN 27.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 2 at the 56
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58%

    (5:47) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete deep left to 11-D.Parker.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 13 at the 26 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 82%

    (3:03) 14-R.Bullock 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern.