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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 9 at the 85

Miami Dolphins 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(5:44) 5-M.Palardy punts 42 yards to TEN 43, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 80-C.Rogers to MIA 46 for 11 yards (43-A.Van Ginkel).

The Three Options

GO -3.10 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.42 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 85, worth -5.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 43, worth -2.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model