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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 9 at the 44

Tennessee Titans 17 – Miami Dolphins 3

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 6-B.Kern punts 37 yards to MIA 7, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-21-M.Farley.

The Three Options

GO -0.36 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.64 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 44, worth -2.14 EP
KICK -0.82 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 12, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model