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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 5

Tennessee Titans 7 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(14:18) 14-R.Bullock 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +3.95 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.94 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 5, worth +0.77 EP
KICK +2.62 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.67 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -0.11 EP
PUNT +0.63 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.34 EP