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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 21

Miami Dolphins 0 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(9:47) 7-J.Sanders 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +1.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.64 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -1.26 EP
KICK +1.08 EP
What Happened
  • 89% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.46 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 31, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model