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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 10 at the 46

Miami Dolphins 3 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(1:11) 5-M.Palardy punts 32 yards to TEN 14, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.06 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 46, worth -2.23 EP
KICK -0.86 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.37 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 13, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model