Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 9 at the 66

Miami Dolphins 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

(9:01) 5-M.Palardy punts 36 yards to TEN 30, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 80-C.Rogers to TEN 38 for 8 yards (42-C.Fejedelem).

The Three Options

GO -1.91 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.84 EP
65% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 66, worth -3.90 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model