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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 56

Tennessee Titans 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(6:46) 6-B.Kern punts 38 yards to MIA 18, Center-46-M.Cox. 35-C.Milton MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at MIA 14.

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.95 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 56, worth -2.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.23 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 17, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model