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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 18 at the 35

Miami Dolphins 3 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(4:37) 7-J.Sanders 53 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-D.Autry), Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.87 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 35, worth -1.75 EP
KICK +0.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 45, worth -2.38 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model