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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 11 at the 27

Miami Dolphins 3 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(10:25) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete deep middle to 11-D.Parker (20-J.Jenkins). PENALTY on MIA-11-D.Parker, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at TEN 27.

The Three Options

GO +0.35 EP
What Happened
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.75 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 27, worth -1.31 EP
KICK +1.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 37, worth -2.02 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.65 EP