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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 17

Tennessee Titans 0 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(2:52) 17-R.Tannehill up the middle to MIA 15 for 2 yards (94-C.Wilkins).

The Three Options

GO +3.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.98 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 17, worth +0.01 EP
KICK +2.42 EP
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.65 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 27, worth -0.41 EP
PUNT +0.57 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model