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Cleveland Browns

HC Kevin Stefanski
@
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Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
Monday 2022-01-03 · 20:15 Heinz Field, Pittsburgh US 🥶 Cold Spread -1.0 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

CLE
54.2%
PIT
45.8%
🥶 Cold

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PIT offense: -0.074 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • PIT defense: +0.074 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • Ben Roethlisberger (PIT): -0.068 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Baker Mayfield (CLE): +0.000 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

CLE 22
–
PIT 20
Projected margin: CLE by 2 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

CLE

Troy Hill CB Out Knee
John Johnson S Out Hamstring
Ronnie Harrison S Out Ankle
Kareem Hunt RB Questionable Ankle
Malik Jackson DT Questionable Knee

PIT

Buddy Johnson LB Out Foot
Pressley Harvin P Questionable Not injury related - personal matter
Kendrick Green C Questionable Calf

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 14
–
PIT 26

Prediction missed by 14 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 10:42 TD PIT (10:42) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short right to 18-D.Johnson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 0 – PIT 6
  • Q2 03:05 FG PIT (3:05) 9-C.Boswell 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-10-C.Waitman. CLE 0 – PIT 10
  • Q3 08:24 FG PIT (8:24) 9-C.Boswell 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-10-C.Waitman. CLE 0 – PIT 13
  • Q3 01:01 TD CLE (1:01) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 85-D.Njoku for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 6 – PIT 13
  • Q4 09:51 FG PIT (9:51) 9-C.Boswell 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-10-C.Waitman. CLE 7 – PIT 16
  • Q4 05:53 FG PIT (5:53) 9-C.Boswell 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-10-C.Waitman. Penalty on CLE-97-M.Jackson, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, offsetting. Penalty on PIT-79-R.Coward, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, offsetting. CLE 7 – PIT 19
  • Q4 01:14 TD CLE (1:14) 6-B.Mayfield pass short left to 88-H.Bryant for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 13 – PIT 19
  • Q4 01:00 TD PIT (1:00) 22-N.Harris right tackle for 37 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 14 – PIT 25

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 6 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (12:26) 10-C.Waitman punts 53 yards to CLE 8, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 11-D.Peoples-Jones to CLE 12 for 4 yards (31-J.Layne). PENALTY on PIT-31-J.Layne, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at CLE 12.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 10 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (10:51) 2-D.Colquitt punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Touchback.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 11 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (8:07) 10-C.Waitman punts 43 yards to CLE 27, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-42-J.Pierre.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 7 at the 38
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 55%

    (5:33) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short middle to 80-J.Landry (97-C.Heyward) [90-T.Watt].

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 1 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 44%

    (2:54) 44-D.Watt up the middle to CLE 41 for 1 yard (90-J.Clowney; 58-M.McDowell).

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 5 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 60%

    (:46) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass incomplete short left to 88-P.Freiermuth (58-M.McDowell).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 16 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (15:00) 2-D.Colquitt punts 36 yards to PIT 34, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-38-A.Green.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 9 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (9:57) 2-D.Colquitt punts 53 yards to PIT 22, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 14-R.McCloud to PIT 37 for 15 yards (36-M.Stewart).

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 3 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP
    p(convert) 52%

    (7:19) 10-C.Waitman punts 44 yards to CLE 12, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 11-D.Peoples-Jones to CLE 21 for 9 yards (54-U.Gilbert). PENALTY on PIT-31-J.Layne, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 21.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%

    (3:05) 9-C.Boswell 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-10-C.Waitman.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 9 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 33%

    (:43) 2-D.Colquitt punts 37 yards to PIT 9, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 14-R.McCloud to PIT 19 for 10 yards (36-M.Stewart, 56-M.Smith).

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 4 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 49%

    (12:47) 2-D.Colquitt punts 42 yards to PIT 17, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 14-R.McCloud to PIT 22 for 5 yards (94-P.Gustin).

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 8 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 96%

    (8:24) 9-C.Boswell 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-10-C.Waitman.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 7 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (5:16) 2-D.Colquitt punts 44 yards to PIT 13, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 14-R.McCloud MUFFS catch, and recovers at PIT 5. 14-R.McCloud to PIT 5 for no gain (84-J.Bradley).

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 11 at the 96
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (3:09) 10-C.Waitman punts 53 yards to CLE 43, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 11-D.Peoples-Jones to PIT 48 for 9 yards (44-D.Watt, 24-B.Snell).

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (:12) 10-C.Waitman punts 51 yards to CLE 23, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 11-D.Peoples-Jones to CLE 30 for 7 yards (54-U.Gilbert, 44-D.Watt).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 20 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (13:42) 2-D.Colquitt punts 21 yards to PIT 43, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 8 at the 32
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 70%

    (9:51) 9-C.Boswell 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-10-C.Waitman.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 3 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 75%

    (5:53) 9-C.Boswell 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-10-C.Waitman. Penalty on CLE-97-M.Jackson, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, offsetting. Penalty on PIT-79-R.Coward, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, offsetting.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 2 at the 37 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 58%

    (1:56) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 11-D.Peoples-Jones ran ob at PIT 22 for 15 yards.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 3 at the 73 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (:15) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle intended for 81-A.Hooper INTERCEPTED by 21-T.Norwood (39-M.Fitzpatrick) at CLE 37. 21-T.Norwood to CLE 37 for no gain (81-A.Hooper).