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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 9 at the 46

Cleveland Browns 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

What Actually Happened

(:43) 2-D.Colquitt punts 37 yards to PIT 9, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 14-R.McCloud to PIT 19 for 10 yards (36-M.Stewart, 56-M.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -0.24 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +2.94 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 46, worth -1.90 EP
KICK -0.58 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.36 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.07 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 13, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model