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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 57

Cleveland Browns 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 13

What Actually Happened

(5:16) 2-D.Colquitt punts 44 yards to PIT 13, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 14-R.McCloud MUFFS catch, and recovers at PIT 5. 14-R.McCloud to PIT 5 for no gain (84-J.Bradley).

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.68 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 57, worth -3.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model