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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 20 at the 64

Cleveland Browns 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 13

What Actually Happened

(13:42) 2-D.Colquitt punts 21 yards to PIT 43, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.82 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.95 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 64, worth -3.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 22, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model