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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 42

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(2:54) 44-D.Watt up the middle to CLE 41 for 1 yard (90-J.Clowney; 58-M.McDowell).

The Three Options

GO +1.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.32 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 42, worth -1.93 EP
KICK -0.42 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.29 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 12, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model