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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 9 at the 74

Pittsburgh Steelers 13 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(:12) 10-C.Waitman punts 51 yards to CLE 23, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 11-D.Peoples-Jones to CLE 30 for 7 yards (54-U.Gilbert, 44-D.Watt).

The Three Options

GO -2.23 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.47 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 74, worth -4.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 32, worth -1.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model