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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 4

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(3:05) 9-C.Boswell 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-10-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +2.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.96 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 4, worth -0.07 EP
KICK +1.97 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -0.66 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP