Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 61

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(12:26) 10-C.Waitman punts 53 yards to CLE 8, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 11-D.Peoples-Jones to CLE 12 for 4 yards (31-J.Layne). PENALTY on PIT-31-J.Layne, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at CLE 12.

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.86 EP
59% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 61, worth -3.20 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model