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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 56

Pittsburgh Steelers 7 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(7:19) 10-C.Waitman punts 44 yards to CLE 12, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 11-D.Peoples-Jones to CLE 21 for 9 yards (54-U.Gilbert). PENALTY on PIT-31-J.Layne, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at CLE 21.

The Three Options

GO +0.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.76 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 56, worth -2.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 17, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.87 EP