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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 9 at the 75

Cleveland Browns 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(9:57) 2-D.Colquitt punts 53 yards to PIT 22, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 14-R.McCloud to PIT 37 for 15 yards (36-M.Stewart).

The Three Options

GO -2.16 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.55 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model