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Arizona Cardinals

HC Kliff Kingsbury
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Dallas Cowboys

HC Mike McCarthy
Sunday 2022-01-02 · 16:25 AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread 6.5 O/U 53.0

Win Probability

ARI
37.9%
DAL
62.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DAL defense: -0.184 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • QB edge to DAL: Dak Prescott (DAL) +0.121 vs Kyler Murray (ARI) +0.136 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

ARI 20
–
DAL 25
Projected margin: DAL by 5 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

ARI

Jordan Phillips DE Out Knee
Marco Wilson CB Out Shoulder
Demetrius Harris TE Questionable Shoulder
Zach Allen DE Questionable Ankle
Budda Baker S Questionable Ribs
James Conner RB Questionable Heel
Sean Harlow G Questionable Illness
Rondale Moore WR Questionable Ankle

DAL

No players on the report.

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 25
–
DAL 22

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:49 FG ARI (7:49) 5-M.Prater 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee. ARI 3 – DAL 0
  • Q2 05:32 TD ARI (5:32) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 85-A.Wesley for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 9 – DAL 0
  • Q2 01:30 TD DAL (1:30) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 13-M.Gallup for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-C.Jones]. DAL-13-M.Gallup was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. ARI 10 – DAL 6
  • Q2 00:03 FG ARI (:03) 5-M.Prater 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee. ARI 13 – DAL 7
  • Q3 09:44 TD ARI (9:44) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep left to 85-A.Wesley for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 19 – DAL 7
  • Q3 04:04 FG ARI (4:04) 5-M.Prater 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee. ARI 22 – DAL 7
  • Q4 13:53 TD DAL (13:53) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 1-C.Wilson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN [34-J.Thompson]. ARI 22 – DAL 13
  • Q4 08:36 FG ARI (8:36) 5-M.Prater 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee. ARI 25 – DAL 14
  • Q4 04:48 TD DAL (4:48) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 19-A.Cooper for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 25 – DAL 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 14 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (11:09) 5-B.Anger punts 42 yards to ARI 16, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by DAL-57-L.Gifford.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 98%

    (7:49) 5-M.Prater 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 2 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 59%

    (4:11) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 86-D.Schultz pushed ob at ARI 26 for 14 yards (7-B.Murphy).

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 9 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 87%

    (2:39) 2-G.Zuerlein 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 5 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (1:12) 14-A.Lee punts 31 yards to DAL 31, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 12 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (14:03) 5-B.Anger punts 57 yards to ARI 14, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 13-C.Kirk to ARI 9 for -5 yards (29-C.Goodwin).

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 2 at the 64
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59%

    (10:33) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 31-C.Banjo. 31-C.Banjo pass deep middle to 29-J.Ward to DAL 41 for 23 yards (25-N.Wright). Penalty on DAL-25-N.Wright, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 99%

    (5:32) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 85-A.Wesley for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 20 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (8:53) 5-B.Anger punts 45 yards to ARI 43, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 13-C.Kirk.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 5 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

    (4:04) 5-M.Prater 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

  • Q3 DAL 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (3:21) 5-B.Anger punts 51 yards to ARI 23, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 13-C.Kirk.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 1 at the 10
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 97%

    (15:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott left tackle to ARI 7 for 3 yards (34-J.Thompson).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 6 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (12:04) 14-A.Lee punts 47 yards to DAL 12, Center-46-A.Brewer. 88-C.Lamb to DAL 10 for -2 yards (28-C.Washington).

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 2 at the 20
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 92%

    (8:36) 5-M.Prater 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (6:46) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 1-C.Wilson ran ob at DAL 41 for 7 yards (7-B.Murphy).