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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 6

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(7:49) 5-M.Prater 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +1.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.63 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 6, worth -0.15 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model