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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 8

Arizona Cardinals 19 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(4:04) 5-M.Prater 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-14-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +2.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.08 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 8, worth -0.08 EP
KICK +1.77 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.89 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP