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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 10

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Arizona Cardinals 22

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott left tackle to ARI 7 for 3 yards (34-J.Thompson).

The Three Options

GO +3.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.29 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 10, worth +0.44 EP
KICK +2.28 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.36 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.40 EP
PUNT +0.34 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model