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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 1

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(5:32) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 85-A.Wesley for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.90 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 1, worth +0.35 EP
KICK +1.93 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.68 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model