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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 66

Dallas Cowboys 14 – Arizona Cardinals 25

What Actually Happened

(6:46) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 1-C.Wilson ran ob at DAL 41 for 7 yards (7-B.Murphy).

The Three Options

GO +0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.49 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 66, worth -3.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.07 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 24, worth -1.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model