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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 20 at the 88

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Arizona Cardinals 19

What Actually Happened

(8:53) 5-B.Anger punts 45 yards to ARI 43, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 13-C.Kirk.

The Three Options

GO -3.23 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.59 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 88, worth -5.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 46, worth -2.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model