Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 9 at the 74

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Arizona Cardinals 22

(3:21) 5-B.Anger punts 51 yards to ARI 23, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 13-C.Kirk.

The Three Options

GO -2.01 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.79 EP
63% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 74, worth -4.27 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model