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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 64

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(10:33) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 31-C.Banjo. 31-C.Banjo pass deep middle to 29-J.Ward to DAL 41 for 23 yards (25-N.Wright). Penalty on DAL-25-N.Wright, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.

The Three Options

GO -0.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.90 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 64, worth -3.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.26 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 22, worth -1.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model