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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 40

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(4:11) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 86-D.Schultz pushed ob at ARI 26 for 14 yards (7-B.Murphy).

The Three Options

GO +1.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.60 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 40, worth -1.77 EP
KICK +0.31 EP
  • 59% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model