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San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
@
TEN Home

Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Vrabel
Thursday 2021-12-23 · 20:20 Nissan Stadium, Nashville US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.5 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

SF
54.1%
TEN
45.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • SF offense: +0.135 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • TEN defense: -0.088 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • Jimmy Garoppolo (SF): +0.177 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

SF 24
–
TEN 23
Projected margin: SF by 1 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

SF

Dre Greenlaw LB Out Groin
Talanoa Hufanga S Out Knee
Maurice Hurst DT Out Calf
Elijah Mitchell RB Out Knee
Azeez Al-Shaair LB Questionable Elbow

TEN

Taylor Lewan T Out Back
David Long LB Out Hamstring
Larrell Murchison DT Out Knee
Rodger Saffold G Out Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 17
–
TEN 20

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:01 TD SF (10:01) 22-J.Wilson right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SF 6 – TEN 0
  • Q2 08:35 FG SF (8:35) 9-R.Gould 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. SF 10 – TEN 0
  • Q3 08:49 FG TEN (8:49) 14-R.Bullock 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern. SF 10 – TEN 3
  • Q3 07:17 TD TEN (7:17) 7-D.Foreman up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 10 – TEN 9
  • Q4 13:06 TD TEN (13:06) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep left to 11-A.Brown for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN [97-N.Bosa]. SF 10 – TEN 16
  • Q4 02:24 TD SF (2:24) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 11-B.Aiyuk for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 16 – TEN 17
  • Q4 00:09 FG TEN (:09) 14-R.Bullock 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern. SF 17 – TEN 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 15 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 22%

    (5:48) 6-B.Kern punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 6 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (15:00) 6-B.Kern punts 39 yards to SF 37, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-21-M.Farley.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 1 at the 31
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 75%

    (11:35) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 19-D.Samuel ran ob at TEN 20 for 11 yards [31-K.Byard].

  • Q2 SF 4th & 20 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 77%

    (8:35) 9-R.Gould 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 2 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP
    p(convert) 59%

    (4:47) 6-B.Kern punts 46 yards to SF 10, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-B.Aiyuk pushed ob at SF 22 for 12 yards (53-D.Cole).

  • Q2 SF 4th & 17 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (3:14) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 30 yards to SF 45, Center-46-T.Pepper, out of bounds.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 20 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 45%

    (1:27) 6-B.Kern punts 33 yards to SF 10, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 11-B.Aiyuk.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 8 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 91%

    (8:49) 14-R.Bullock 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 6 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 53%

    (1:57) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass incomplete short right to 11-B.Aiyuk.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 9 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 45%

    (9:31) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 40 yards to TEN 3, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-81-T.Sherfield.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 10 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (5:28) 6-B.Kern punts 59 yards to SF 5, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-81-R.McMath.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 5 at the 26 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 84%

    (:09) 14-R.Bullock 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern.