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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 10 at the 64

Tennessee Titans 17 – San Francisco 49ers 10

What Actually Happened

(5:28) 6-B.Kern punts 59 yards to SF 5, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-81-R.McMath.

The Three Options

GO -1.44 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.23 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 64, worth -3.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 22, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model