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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 6 at the 40

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(1:57) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass incomplete short right to 11-B.Aiyuk.

The Three Options

GO +0.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.60 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 40, worth -2.12 EP
KICK -0.33 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.82 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model