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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 20 at the 30

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(8:35) 9-R.Gould 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.15 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30, worth -1.67 EP
KICK +0.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 40, worth -2.23 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model