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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 9 at the 43

San Francisco 49ers 10 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(9:31) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 40 yards to TEN 3, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-81-T.Sherfield.

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.63 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 43, worth -2.12 EP
KICK -0.64 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP