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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 8 at the 20

Tennessee Titans 0 – San Francisco 49ers 10

What Actually Happened

(8:49) 14-R.Bullock 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +1.27 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.20 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 20, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +1.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30, worth -1.24 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model