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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 1 at the 31

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(11:35) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 19-D.Samuel ran ob at TEN 20 for 11 yards [31-K.Byard].

The Three Options

GO +2.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.77 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 31, worth -1.71 EP
KICK +0.62 EP
  • 75% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 41, worth -2.35 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model