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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 56

Tennessee Titans 0 – San Francisco 49ers 10

What Actually Happened

(4:47) 6-B.Kern punts 46 yards to SF 10, Center-46-M.Cox. 11-B.Aiyuk pushed ob at SF 22 for 12 yards (53-D.Cole).

The Three Options

GO +0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.77 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 56, worth -3.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP