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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 26

Tennessee Titans 17 – San Francisco 49ers 17

What Actually Happened

(:09) 14-R.Bullock 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +0.38 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +0.97 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +2.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 36, worth -0.12 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model