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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Tennessee Titans
4th & 15 at the 53
Tennessee Titans 0 – San Francisco 49ers 7
What Actually Happened
(5:48) 6-B.Kern punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-46-M.Cox, Touchback.
The Three Options
GO
-0.93 EP
-
27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.59 EP
- 73% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 53, worth -2.58 EP
KICK
-1.33 EP
- 22% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
- 78% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT
-0.21 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.21 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
