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Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Darrell Bevell
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New York Jets

HC Robert Saleh
Sunday 2021-12-26 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread 2.5 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

JAX
39.6%
NYJ
60.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • JAX offense: -0.181 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • NYJ defense: +0.154 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • QB edge to JAX: Zach Wilson (NYJ) -0.251 vs Trevor Lawrence (JAX) -0.093 EPA/dropback
  • JAX defense: +0.076 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

JAX 18
–
NYJ 22
Projected margin: NYJ by 4 Projected total: 40

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

JAX

Brandon Linder C Questionable Quadricep
Lerentee McCray DE Questionable Ankle

NYJ

Elijah Riley S Out Concussion
Jamison Crowder WR Doubtful Calf
George Fant T Questionable Knee
Bryce Hall CB Questionable Illness
C.J. Mosley LB Questionable Back
Sheldon Rankins DT Questionable Knee
Quinnen Williams DT Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 21
–
NYJ 26

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:15 FG JAX (8:15) 15-M.Wright 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 3 – NYJ 0
  • Q1 04:08 TD NYJ (4:08) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson scrambles right end for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 3 – NYJ 6
  • Q2 13:16 TD JAX (13:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence right guard to NYJ 1 for 2 yards (41-J.Pinnock). FUMBLES (41-J.Pinnock), recovered by JAX-76-W.Richardson at NYJ -2. TOUCHDOWN. JAX 9 – NYJ 6
  • Q2 13:08 TD NYJ 9-L.Cooke kicks 67 yards from JAX 35 to NYJ -2. 10-B.Berrios for 102 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 9 – NYJ 12
  • Q2 08:19 FG JAX (8:19) 15-M.Wright 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 12 – NYJ 13
  • Q3 09:51 FG NYJ (9:51) 15-E.Pineiro 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann. JAX 12 – NYJ 16
  • Q3 00:29 FG JAX (:29) 15-M.Wright 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke. JAX 15 – NYJ 16
  • Q4 09:24 TD NYJ (9:24) 69-C.McDermott reported in as eligible. 2-Z.Wilson pass short right to 69-C.McDermott for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 15 – NYJ 22
  • Q4 05:28 TD JAX (5:28) 72-W.Little and 90-M.Brown reported in as eligible. 33-D.Ogunbowale left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 21 – NYJ 23
  • Q4 01:49 FG NYJ (1:49) 69-C.McDermott reported in as eligible. 15-E.Pineiro 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann. JAX 21 – NYJ 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60%

    (13:07) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 42-A.Wingard. 42-A.Wingard up the middle to JAX 37 for 4 yards (43-D.Phillips).

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.31 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 99%

    (8:15) 15-M.Wright 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 1 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 61%

    (:21) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left to 18-L.Treadwell to NYJ 19 for 20 yards (1-K.Nacua).

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 7 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 84%

    (8:19) 15-M.Wright 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (7:21) 7-B.Mann punts 55 yards to JAX 5, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 4-J.Mickens to JAX 9 for 4 yards (49-L.Reynolds).

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 6 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (5:19) 9-L.Cooke punts 59 yards to NYJ 16, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 10-B.Berrios to NYJ 28 for 12 yards (54-D.Wilson).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 3 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 54%

    (1:55) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short right to 10-B.Berrios to JAX 32 for 10 yards (5-R.Ford).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 24
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 88%

    (1:13) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson scrambles right end ran ob at JAX 7 for 17 yards (42-A.Wingard).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 99%

    (:16) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass incomplete short middle to 11-D.Mims (26-S.Griffin).

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 88%

    (9:51) 15-E.Pineiro 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 8
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%

    (5:11) (Field Goal formation) 7-B.Mann left end to JAX 4 for 4 yards (32-T.Campbell).

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 4 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 91%

    (:29) 15-M.Wright 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 99%

    (9:24) 69-C.McDermott reported in as eligible. 2-Z.Wilson pass short right to 69-C.McDermott for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 1 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.77 EP
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 99%

    (1:49) 69-C.McDermott reported in as eligible. 15-E.Pineiro 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 1 at the 1 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 99%

    (:12) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short right to 11-M.Jones (40-J.Guidry). Penalty on JAX, Illegal Shift, declined.