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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 9 at the 60

New York Jets 13 – Jacksonville Jaguars 12

What Actually Happened

(7:21) 7-B.Mann punts 55 yards to JAX 5, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 4-J.Mickens to JAX 9 for 4 yards (49-L.Reynolds).

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.84 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 60, worth -3.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 19, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model