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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 1

Jacksonville Jaguars 21 – New York Jets 26

What Actually Happened

(:12) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short right to 11-M.Jones (40-J.Guidry). Penalty on JAX, Illegal Shift, declined.

The Three Options

GO +4.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.95 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 1, worth +0.29 EP
KICK +2.97 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.01 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth +0.01 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model