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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 24

New York Jets 13 – Jacksonville Jaguars 12

What Actually Happened

(1:13) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson scrambles right end ran ob at JAX 7 for 17 yards (42-A.Wingard).

The Three Options

GO +2.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.34 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24, worth -0.47 EP
KICK +2.09 EP
  • 88% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.51 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 34, worth -1.04 EP
PUNT +0.22 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model