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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 39

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(:21) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep left to 18-L.Treadwell to NYJ 19 for 20 yards (1-K.Nacua).

The Three Options

GO +1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +2.99 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 39, worth -2.41 EP
KICK -0.22 EP
  • 61% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.54 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 48, worth -3.01 EP
PUNT -0.64 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model