4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 1

New York Jets 23 – Jacksonville Jaguars 21

What Actually Happened

(1:49) 69-C.McDermott reported in as eligible. 15-E.Pineiro 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +3.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.09 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 1, worth -0.15 EP
KICK +2.11 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21, worth -0.68 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.77 EP