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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 2 at the 2

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(8:15) 15-M.Wright 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +2.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.60 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 2, worth +0.11 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.31 EP