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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 21

Jacksonville Jaguars 12 – New York Jets 16

What Actually Happened

(:29) 15-M.Wright 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

The Three Options

GO +1.56 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.83 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.84 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 31, worth -1.52 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model